What if Americans view the condition of the economy through a partisan political lens rather than judging it based on facts? For decades, economists and political scientists used economic conditions to predict election outcomes. But a widely read Harris Poll conducted last month strongly suggests that partisanship drives our views about the economy. This should prompt some introspection.
Dr. Hicks, I appreciate this commentary and have a couple of observations, if you will allow.
First, I think your analysis is quite solid and mostly correct. Media fragmentation and the monetization of attention is a major problem, and seems to account for the very poor showing on the basic facts. I am reminded of the great book Factfulness, by the late Hans Rosling and his children Anna Ronnlund and Ola Rosling. It encourages us to avoid the "Us vs Them" dualities of life and see issues as more nuanced, understanding that there is an under-reported middle. It also shows us that chimps can guess a correct answer about 1/3rd the time, which outperforms many supposed educated persons. Could there be a missing middle here that outperforms the "Dems vs Reps" duality?
Second, I take some issue with the following. You write:
Third, our enemies are adept at exploiting these weaknesses. Russia, China, and Iran amplify social media algorithms to polarize Americans. The goal isn’t to elect a particular candidate, but to disrupt political life in general, weaken national resolve on important foreign policy issues and to sew distrust among citizens. Russia is actively seeding disinformation about Ukraine targeting GOP leaning voters, while funding a different disinformation about the conflict in Gaza targeting progressive groups.
While I agree America's adversaries are adept and attempting to exploit our weaknesses, it is rather clear that Russia, China, and even Iran have their preferred candidate in the upcoming presidential race. (Remember, Mr. Trump backed out of the Iran nuclear arrangement JCPOA - Iran then increased uranium enrichment and expanded nuclear facilities, thus shortening the lead time to developing nuclear weapons) Their goals are to disrupt political life and weaken consensus around a rules-based international order. There is one candidate (Mr. Trump) who would do so and is playing directly into the hands of these regimes. There is another (Mr. Biden) who is doing what he can, however imperfectly, to uphold NATO and the rules-based order. Mr. Biden is also the candidate that is preferred by Fortune 500 CEOs, as they call Mr. Trump's proposed policies inflationary, resulting in a shrinking of the US economy, which has grown in spite of significant year over year inflation. (See https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/24/business/economy/biden-trump-ceos.html).
Dr. Hicks, I appreciate this commentary and have a couple of observations, if you will allow.
First, I think your analysis is quite solid and mostly correct. Media fragmentation and the monetization of attention is a major problem, and seems to account for the very poor showing on the basic facts. I am reminded of the great book Factfulness, by the late Hans Rosling and his children Anna Ronnlund and Ola Rosling. It encourages us to avoid the "Us vs Them" dualities of life and see issues as more nuanced, understanding that there is an under-reported middle. It also shows us that chimps can guess a correct answer about 1/3rd the time, which outperforms many supposed educated persons. Could there be a missing middle here that outperforms the "Dems vs Reps" duality?
Second, I take some issue with the following. You write:
Third, our enemies are adept at exploiting these weaknesses. Russia, China, and Iran amplify social media algorithms to polarize Americans. The goal isn’t to elect a particular candidate, but to disrupt political life in general, weaken national resolve on important foreign policy issues and to sew distrust among citizens. Russia is actively seeding disinformation about Ukraine targeting GOP leaning voters, while funding a different disinformation about the conflict in Gaza targeting progressive groups.
While I agree America's adversaries are adept and attempting to exploit our weaknesses, it is rather clear that Russia, China, and even Iran have their preferred candidate in the upcoming presidential race. (Remember, Mr. Trump backed out of the Iran nuclear arrangement JCPOA - Iran then increased uranium enrichment and expanded nuclear facilities, thus shortening the lead time to developing nuclear weapons) Their goals are to disrupt political life and weaken consensus around a rules-based international order. There is one candidate (Mr. Trump) who would do so and is playing directly into the hands of these regimes. There is another (Mr. Biden) who is doing what he can, however imperfectly, to uphold NATO and the rules-based order. Mr. Biden is also the candidate that is preferred by Fortune 500 CEOs, as they call Mr. Trump's proposed policies inflationary, resulting in a shrinking of the US economy, which has grown in spite of significant year over year inflation. (See https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/24/business/economy/biden-trump-ceos.html).